Analogous to Approximate counting, consider maintaining only a grand total and the order of the tokens.
Assume that the curve evolves according to the total, approaching some statistical idealised model (is this reasonable? I should look at my data). From that, rather than incrementing counts, we consider decreasing rank by one (possibly more with low totals?) with a probability appropriate to the curve we expect at that position.
Because all I want is a curve and an order, so maybe going straight to it would be the right answer?
Would these tables be easy to merge with approximate matches?